Surely the sequel can’t be as bad as we thought… Or it’s a global game-changer?
Are we human or are we dancer…? Assassination attempts, close calls both… a third investigated, or disputed. Donald Trump believes God spared him for a reason.
I was mostly ignoring the political rhetoric traded here – and over there – with Musk and his new master, it would seem, crossing yet another line as frank insults fired at the UK government got heated and personal. Whether it was through a lens of obscurity or absurdity, or like I’d walked through the back of a wardrobe or fallen down a rabbit hole, we can probably safely say Canada hasn’t been annexed as another northern state, and Musk is sooner muzzled on a lead.
We are in extraordinary times. Both the Russia/ Ukraine and Middle East conflicts are major negotiations on Trump’s agenda, as his strong indication to withdraw US military aid and its long-standing naval presence has made NATO and the EU nervous. The ‘America first’ mandate will save the US billions, and other NATO countries must contribute more. But at what cost?
Yes, America has built and maintained its global power-base and influence by its strong interventional posture. Whether for greater good, or ill, the US has long-overstretched and bank-rolled global security. It operates seven naval fleets (one would be a match for most navies) and each defending US interests and Americans overseas. In coalition this posture holds a recognised balance of power – though not globally welcomed. Carrier groups are strategic platforms projecting force or deterrent. Some 750+ military bases are a further extension, and I anticipate many being closed to return thousands of US service personnel.
Most people living today don’t know a world without a US strategic backstop.
We are likely to see slimmed down military assistance and more selective engagement, not assumed support. But hostile powers – and opportunists – watch this keenly, and escalatory actions could further increase tensions in the Baltic and South China Sea.
It would seem inconceivable for a US administration to renege its military assistance to Israel, or pull out of strategic naval bases in Bahrain, Japan and The Philippines (the most valuable and longest-standing trading partner).
“All hell will break out in the Middle East,” Trump has said, if hostages are not released. There is hope for a phased plan as the first are returned to families. But ceasefires are fragile here and politically fractious; the hourglass has run out on one US administration as international optimism cajoles parties over the line. In the short-term I don’t see any change in the commitment to Red Sea security. If Trump can work for lasting peace, then success will be great where many have failed for a century.
Recent sabotage of deep-sea cables and pipelines will remain a European concern. Commercial vessels need to stay visible and clear of so-called ‘shadow fleet’ activity that continues with hostile intent.
USAID (humanitarian relief and development) is also expected to be cut by at least 20 per cent, impacting many countries – critically Afghanistan, South Sudan, Haiti and Ukraine.
Trump has said he will bring about a quick end to Russia’s war with Ukraine. This will be welcomed after the pointless loss of life and destruction. Black Sea trade will return. Food inflation should fall, as Word Food Programme missions are again sustained. The US contribution to the WFP in 2023 was US$3 billion.
But how far will Trump deal with Putin? Within an echo chamber of land-grab aspiration, Greenland is now firmly on the table – “critical” for security in the North. Clearly there is irritation with northern trade and America not seeing so much of it. I anticipate fevered interest in Artic trade routes, with bargaining chips already primed for Russia and China.
‘America first’ could see tariffs (at least 20 per cent) on many imports. With tariffs having inflationary impact, there has been an uptick in maritime trade with the US in recent months. Cost hikes will divert some business operations, while most charterers will absorb charges in tighter margins and recoup this in higher prices for consumers.
Trump is taking America from global interventionist to regional expansionist, sizing-up the Panama Canal (not ruling out force) and renaming the Gulf of Mexico as ‘Gulf of America.’
There are ‘known unknowns,’ if not ‘known knowns,’ as we wait and watch. And a quantum of bluff. Trump wants the world to see his opening negotiating position – not the end game.
This isn’t 2016. Trump 2.0 isn’t Camelot …Narnia or Wonderland. Trump tears up any playbook, whilst holding all the cards (not only the jokers), as he goes after anything else he requires. Consider it poker diplomacy, but as any diplomat can tell you, the ‘stick’ must have follow-through and usually with some consensus of coalition.
‘America first’ mustn’t be isolationist. The US has a legacy at the forefront of many initiatives, developments, institutions and collaborations, and as such this has been in America’s interest and the global interest for security and economic cohesion. It isn’t America leaving in the NATO example, it is others carrying more of the weight, and the same can be said for a dozen entities.
It is just that the playground bully-tone and threat rhetoric can jar with folks when the offering appears to be a strategy of economic and military coercion.
“My proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier. That’s what I want to be…” Trump told an elite audience in the Rotunda. Later he addressed supporters – rhetoric becoming policy as he signed Executive Orders, before flinging pens to the crowd like a rock star.
Game-changer or game show: Trump is in the enviable position of having majority control of both the Senate and the House – and his people in the Supreme Court. Some might call that absolute power.
But just maybe he can do some good with it. Something great. President or necromancer, he can of course hope, and trust “…so help me God.”
